schema_version: '4.1'
method_version: 4.2.0-preview
study_mode: llm_subjective_judgment_ensemble
model_panel_mode: single_codex_model_repeated_measure
validation_rules:
  complete_scorecard_required: true
  retain_invalid_runs: true
  equal_model_family_weight: true
  json_roundtrip_stable: true
as_of: '2026-07-19'
language: en
title: How AI Models Perceive Presidential Suitability
subtitle: A repeated-measures study of subjective LLM judgments, model disagreement,
  prompt sensitivity, and ranking instability. It does not measure objective candidate
  quality and is not polling, an official nomination, or an endorsement.
candidate_universe_rule: 'A fixed illustrative comparator set inherited from the 19
  July 2026 provisional scorecard: ten living Hungarian public figures spanning constitutional
  law, science, culture, economics, and public analysis. The set is not exhaustive,
  is not an official candidate list, and was frozen before the ensemble run.'
candidate_universe_status: illustrative_fixed_set
selection_caveat: Inclusion indicates only analytical comparability. Eligibility,
  consent, conflicts, integrity, and capacity to serve require separate verification.
theory_practice_contract:
  version: '1.0'
  claim_scope: conditional_on_frozen_candidate_set
  core_statement: Candidate discovery, judgment measurement, aggregation, and final
    decision are distinct inferential stages. Every result is conditional on the frozen
    illustrative set and the declared protocol; it is not a claim that the best possible
    national candidates were discovered.
  layers:
  - id: discovery
    question: Who enters the candidate universe?
    theory: selection_and_coverage
    authority: human_approved_protocol
  - id: construct
    question: Which properties are evaluated and what do they exclude?
    theory: construct_validity
    authority: human_approved_rubric
  - id: measurement
    question: How do prompt, response format, reasoning mode, and model change judgments?
    theory: cross_protocol_measurement_invariance
    authority: frozen_experiment_contract
  - id: aggregation
    question: How much independent information does each role and model lineage add?
    theory: dependence_aware_information_gain
    authority: predeclared_analysis
  - id: decision
    question: Who acts on the evidence?
    theory: governance_and_social_choice
    authority: accountable_human_only
  candidate_universe:
    discovery_status: retrospective_seed_set_not_reproducible
    origin: The ten-person comparator set was inherited from an exploratory scorecard,
      then checked for domain breadth and frozen before the v4 ensemble run. It was
      not generated by a preregistered exhaustive search.
    discovery_agents_used: []
    discovery_agents_planned:
    - closed_book_nomination
    - source_retrieval_nomination
    - domain_specialist_nomination
    - missing_group_coverage_audit
    - adversarial_omission_search
    inclusion_authority: human
    eligibility_authority: human_with_legal_verification
    freeze_id: presidential-measurement-population-v5-71106ba6ea31
    frozen_before_scoring: true
    freeze_rule: Candidate additions or removals require a new immutable study release
      and cannot be backfilled into an existing score distribution.
    selection_bias_warning: Visibility, model familiarity, source availability, and
      the exploratory origin may affect inclusion. Rankings are valid only as protocol-
      conditioned descriptions within this frozen set.
    prospective_full_run_policy:
      fixed_candidate_cap: null
      inclusion_uses_scores: false
      inclusion_uses_weights: false
      sampling_frame_status: designed_not_enumerated
      inclusion_rule: Include every eligibility-cleared person who satisfies a preregistered,
        score-independent sampling frame. Independent nomination lanes audit that
        frame for omissions; they do not expand it merely by generating an otherwise
        unbounded public name. Record every inclusion, exclusion, and frame-membership
        decision with provenance.
      sampling_frame_rule: Before discovery resumes, define objective and auditable
        entry routes from authoritative registries or declared public roles, offices,
        honors, institutional leadership positions, or comparable observable criteria.
        The frame may yield any number of people, but cannot use expected ratings,
        criterion weights, fame inferred by an LLM, or a desired top-k count.
      discovery_stop_rule:
        minimum_independent_nomination_lanes: 5
        saturation_rounds_required: 2
        maximum_new_eligible_fraction_per_saturation_round: 0.05
        coverage_audit_must_pass: true
        adversarial_omission_audit_must_pass: true
        description: Stop only after two additional complete nomination rounds each
          add at most 5% new eligible names and both coverage and adversarial omission
          audits find no unresolved candidate class. The resulting count is an empirical
          outcome, not a preset target.
      measurement_rule: Every person in the frozen eligible longlist receives the
        baseline ordinal repeated-measures protocol. No one may be removed because
        of an expected low score, inconvenient uncertainty, or a chosen weight profile.
      expensive_protocol_rule: Pairwise, specialist, or extended-budget cells may
        use preregistered diagnostic subsets for cost control, but subset membership
        does not change the candidate universe and cannot erase baseline results.
      reporting_rule: Compute top-k only after measurement and separately for each
        declared weight profile or sampled weight distribution. Also report candidates
        that are Pareto-undominated, frequently top-k across weights, or highly rank-uncertain.
        Do not publish one universal top ten.
      discovery_dry_run:
        version: 1
        status: passed
        passed_artifact_id: presidential-discovery-dry-run-20260721T163634+0200
        passed_artifact_hash: sha256:61fcb178aeae983c820faec78d5b80c80eb2bb765e9ec80b83ccbe6e964e4a95
        pass_summary:
          valid_lanes: 5/5
          raw_nominations: 59
          merged_shadow_nominations: 41
          missing_coverage_dimensions: []
          fixture_gate: PASS
          readiness_decision: PASS
        binding_candidate_list: false
        creates_final_eligibility: false
        creates_candidate_scores: false
        lanes:
        - id: broad_closed_book_nomination
          role: Generate a broad cross-domain set without seeing other lanes.
          model_id: gpt-56-sol
        - id: institutional_and_legal_nomination
          role: Search constitutional, judicial, diplomatic, and public-administration
            backgrounds.
          model_id: gpt-56-terra
        - id: nonpolitical_domain_nomination
          role: Search science, culture, education, health, economics, technology,
            and civil society.
          model_id: gemini-pro
        - id: coverage_critic_nomination
          role: Generate names from classes commonly missed by fame- or politics-driven
            lists.
          model_id: gpt-56-sol
        - id: adversarial_omission_nomination
          role: Search for defensible omissions and counterexamples to an obvious
            shortlist.
          model_id: gemini-pro
        required_coverage_dimensions:
        - law
        - science
        - culture
        - economics
        - civil_society
        - public_administration
        - diplomacy
        - education
        - health
        - technology
        maximum_nominations_per_lane: 12
        readiness_gates:
          require_every_lane_valid: true
          require_provenance_for_every_merged_name: true
          require_zero_candidate_scores: true
          require_zero_final_eligibility_claims: true
          require_nonbinding_output: true
          require_duplicate_fixture_detected: true
          require_ineligible_fixture_quarantined: true
          require_missing_coverage_fixture_detected: true
          require_omission_escalation: true
          require_saturation_logic: true
          require_freeze_tamper_detection: true
      binding_candidate_intake:
        version: 1
        status: blocked
        maximum_rounds: 6
        first_round_independent: true
        later_rounds_receive_only_known_name_exclusions: true
        saturation_rounds_required: 2
        maximum_new_merged_fraction_per_saturation_round: 0.05
        creates_candidate_scores: false
        creates_final_eligibility: false
        creates_human_freeze: false
        latest_artifact_id: presidential-candidate-intake-20260721T223927+0200
        latest_artifact_hash: sha256:3ccfc4ee24b37d6c1c6d36c0b131276ff5da25bd4a9140a88dc47825db58baf7
        empirical_result:
          valid_rounds: 6
          merged_search_leads: 294
          new_merged_fractions_after_round_one:
          - 1.1219512195121952
          - 0.5862068965517241
          - 0.3695652173913043
          - 0.2804232804232804
          - 0.21487603305785125
          saturation_reached: false
          readiness_decision: FAIL
        blocking_reason: Open-ended LLM nomination over "living public figures who
          might reasonably belong" did not approach saturation. The sixth round still
          added 21.49% new names. Further generation would enlarge an undefined universe
          rather than establish candidate-population coverage.
        next_required_step: Preregister an objective, score-independent sampling frame
          and use LLM nomination only as an omission audit against that frame.
        required_human_review_fields:
        - identity_verified
        - living_status_verified
        - citizenship_verified
        - constitutional_eligibility_verified
        - willingness_status_reviewed
        - conflicts_reviewed
        - evidence_sources_verified
        - inclusion_decision
        readiness_gates:
          require_every_lane_valid_every_round: true
          require_two_round_saturation: true
          require_provenance_for_every_name: true
          require_evidence_queries_for_every_name: true
          require_all_human_review_fields_pending: true
          require_zero_candidate_scores: true
          require_zero_final_eligibility_claims: true
          require_zero_human_freeze_claims: true
          require_complete_coverage_report: true
  multi_agent_framework:
    version: 1
    stage_order:
    - nomination
    - frame_verification
    - eligibility_and_evidence
    - human_freeze
    - measurement
    - aggregation
    - human_decision
    nomination:
      status: implemented_contract_blocked_on_frame_enumeration
      input: objective_sampling_frame_contract
      output_type: generated_lead
      output_is_candidate: false
      creates_eligibility: false
      creates_human_freeze: false
      creates_candidate_score: false
      legal_universe: All people satisfying the applicable constitutional eligibility
        rule. This universe is acknowledged but is not claimed to be exhaustively
        enumerable by the LLM system.
      analytic_candidate_frame: The union of people satisfying at least one preregistered,
        observable, score-independent entry route after source-backed frame verification.
      entry_routes:
      - id: official_or_former_nomination
        temporal_mode: event_based
        basis: Official nomination or documented former presidential candidacy.
        source_classes:
        - official_parliamentary_record
        - official_election_record
      - id: explicit_presidential_discourse
        temporal_mode: current
        basis: Explicit discussion as a possible president in independent public sources.
        source_classes:
        - representative_survey
        - independent_national_media
        - attributable_public_nomination
      - id: constitutional_or_diplomatic_leadership
        temporal_mode: structural
        basis: Current or former national constitutional, judicial, diplomatic, or
          public-administration leadership.
        source_classes:
        - official_institutional_biography
        - authoritative_public_registry
      - id: national_institutional_leadership
        temporal_mode: structural
        basis: Leadership of a nationally significant scientific, cultural, educational,
          health, economic, or civil institution.
        source_classes:
        - official_institutional_biography
        - authoritative_public_registry
      - id: national_achievement_and_representation
        temporal_mode: structural
        basis: Documented national-level achievement combined with a public representative
          role.
        source_classes:
        - official_award_registry
        - official_institutional_biography
      - id: current_public_salience
        temporal_mode: current
        basis: Sustained current national public salience measured outside model memory.
        source_classes:
        - representative_survey
        - independent_national_media
        - public_attention_series
      - id: current_public_relevance
        temporal_mode: current
        basis: Documented national public role or presidential discourse within the
          current relevance window.
        source_classes:
        - official_institutional_biography
        - independent_national_media
        - attributable_public_nomination
      - id: adversarial_omission
        temporal_mode: audit
        basis: A coverage critic identifies a likely omission that must still map
          to a substantive entry route.
        source_classes:
        - omission_audit_record
      temporal_policy:
        freeze_date: '2026-07-19'
        current_relevance_window_months: 12
        public_salience_is_optional_route: true
        current_relevance_is_optional_route: true
        structural_routes_do_not_expire_automatically: true
      salience_policy:
        model_memory_is_evidence: false
        minimum_independent_source_classes: 2
        one_off_mention_is_sufficient: false
        salience_is_suitability_score: false
      required_packet_fields:
      - status
      - display_name
      - entry_route_ids
      - route_claims
      - evidence_queries
      - source_classes_sought
      - temporal_basis
      - nomination_rationale
      - uncertainty_note
      - proposing_lane
      - proposing_model
      prohibited_packet_fields:
      - score
      - rank
      - weight
      - top_k
      - eligibility_status
      - candidate_status
      - included_in_frozen_list
      lifecycle:
      - status: generated_lead
        authority: nomination_agent
      - status: frame_qualified_nominee
        authority: source_retrieval_and_frame_verification
      - status: eligibility_cleared_nominee
        authority: human_with_legal_verification
      - status: human_frozen_candidate
        authority: human
      resume_gate: Binding intake remains blocked until authoritative source inventories
        for every enabled entry route are declared and the sampling-frame status is
        ready_for_enumeration.
      smoke_test:
        status: passed
        artifact_id: presidential-nomination-smoke-20260722T075213+0200
        artifact_hash: sha256:eae0c35c31661c85d9e21006be2932cb57c954a87369f4b961b040e87ba47098
        blind_valid_lanes: 5/5
        blind_merged_generated_leads: 21
        named_probe: Lackó Adrienn
        named_probe_found_blind: false
        named_probe_positive_lanes: 0/5
        smoke_decision: PASS
        frame_membership_created: false
        eligibility_created: false
        candidate_status_created: false
        score_created: false
  governance:
    construct_owner: human
    candidate_freeze_owner: human
    model_panel_owner: experiment_designer
    scorer_authority: none
    final_decision_owner: accountable_human_institution
    publication_owner: human_after_legal_and_method_review
    permitted_automation:
    - generated_lead_nomination
    - evidence_query_generation
    - omission_audit
    prohibited_automation:
    - autonomous_frame_qualification
    - autonomous_eligibility_determination
    - autonomous_candidate_status_assignment
    - autonomous_final_selection
    - hidden_criterion_or_weight_changes
  study_phases:
  - id: candidate_discovery
    status: retrospective_documented
    output: candidate_universe_and_coverage_report
  - id: eligibility_and_evidence
    status: partial_human_verification_required
    output: eligibility_and_evidence_packet
  - id: list_freeze
    status: completed_for_v4
    output: immutable_candidate_set_identity
  - id: construct_and_rubric
    status: completed_for_v4
    output: versioned_criteria_anchors_and_external_weights
  - id: independent_measurement
    status: completed_for_v4_ordinal_protocol
    output: retained_model_prompt_repetition_packets
  - id: adversarial_audit
    status: completed_for_v4
    output: factual_recall_and_model_risk_flags
  - id: dependence_aware_aggregation
    status: completed_for_v4_family_balance
    output: distributions_sensitivity_and_conditional_shortlist
  - id: human_decision
    status: intentionally_external
    output: no_automated_winner
  cross_protocol_experiment:
    status: designed_not_run
    baseline_release: presidential-selection-v4-20260720T074609+0200
    primary_estimand: Stability of candidate-by-criterion order and uncertainty across
      semantically equivalent elicitation protocols after separating model lineage,
      within-lineage variant, role, reasoning mode, and repetition.
    no_private_chain_of_thought: true
    planned_model_configs:
    - id: gpt-56-sol
      lineage: openai
      version: '5.6'
      variant: sol
      model: gpt-5.6-sol-medium
      engine: cursor_cli
      availability: verify_at_run
    - id: gpt-56-luna
      lineage: openai
      version: '5.6'
      variant: luna
      model: gpt-5.6-luna-medium
      engine: cursor_cli
      availability: verify_at_run
    - id: gpt-56-terra
      lineage: openai
      version: '5.6'
      variant: terra
      model: gpt-5.6-terra-medium
      engine: cursor_cli
      availability: verify_at_run
    - id: claude-opus
      lineage: anthropic
      version: '4.8'
      variant: thinking
      model: claude-opus-4-8-thinking-high
      engine: cursor_cli
      availability: verify_at_run
    - id: composer
      lineage: cursor
      version: '2.5'
      variant: fast
      model: composer-2.5-fast
      engine: cursor_cli
      availability: verify_at_run
    - id: gemini-pro
      lineage: google
      version: '3.1'
      variant: pro
      model: gemini-3.1-pro
      engine: cursor_cli
      availability: verified_by_smoke
    factor_levels:
      prompt_variant:
      - direct_anchored
      - reflective_independent
      response_format:
      - ordinal_with_abstention
      - pairwise_both_orders
      - top_k_with_ties
      rationale_policy:
      - score_only
      - concise_evidence_and_reservation
      reasoning_mode:
      - standard
      - extended_budget
      evaluator_role:
      - generalist_rater
      - criterion_specialist
      repetition:
      - 1
      - 2
      - 3
    pilot:
      version: 2
      status: passed
      passed_pilot_id: presidential-selection-pilot-20260721T145850+0200
      passed_at: '2026-07-21T14:58:50+02:00'
      pass_summary:
        valid_calls: 30/30
        synthetic_control_pass_rate: 0.9135802469135802
        pairwise_order_consistency: 1.0
        abstention_field_coverage: 1.0
        exact_reproduction: true
        blocking_audit_flags: 0
      protocol_full_run_unlocked: true
      supersedes_pilot_id: presidential-selection-pilot-20260721T144845+0200
      revision_reason: Pilot v1 failed because Claude Opus returned four plain-language
        safety refusals for real-person political scoring, leaving 26/30 valid packets.
        The 90% gate is unchanged. V2 replaces only the cross-lineage pilot control
        with Gemini 3.1 Pro, already used by the v4 baseline; the full experiment
        retains Claude refusal behavior as an MNAR observation.
      purpose: Exercise every new parser and intervention, detect operational failures,
        and test whether the promotion diagnostics are computable before the full
        106-call experiment. Pilot candidate scores are not substantive findings and
        must not be published as a ranking.
      publishable_candidate_findings: false
      models:
      - gpt-56-sol
      - gpt-56-terra
      - gemini-pro
      repetitions: 2
      deterministic_item_sample:
        real_candidate_count: 4
        real_candidate_method: Sort candidate IDs by SHA-256 of freeze_id, pilot seed,
          and candidate ID; take the first four. Do not inspect current scores when
          sampling.
        synthetic_controls: all
        seed: 20260721
      protocol_cells:
      - id: ordinal_score_only
        prompt_variant: direct_anchored
        response_format: ordinal_with_abstention
        rationale_policy: score_only
        reasoning_mode: standard
        evaluator_role: generalist_rater
      - id: ordinal_concise
        prompt_variant: direct_anchored
        response_format: ordinal_with_abstention
        rationale_policy: concise_evidence_and_reservation
        reasoning_mode: standard
        evaluator_role: generalist_rater
      - id: ordinal_extended_specialist
        prompt_variant: direct_anchored
        response_format: ordinal_with_abstention
        rationale_policy: concise_evidence_and_reservation
        reasoning_mode: extended_budget
        evaluator_role: criterion_specialist
      - id: pairwise_reversal
        prompt_variant: reflective_independent
        response_format: pairwise_both_orders
        rationale_policy: concise_evidence_and_reservation
        reasoning_mode: standard
        evaluator_role: generalist_rater
      - id: top_k_ties
        prompt_variant: reflective_independent
        response_format: top_k_with_ties
        rationale_policy: concise_evidence_and_reservation
        reasoning_mode: standard
        evaluator_role: generalist_rater
      promotion_gates:
        minimum_valid_call_rate: 0.9
        require_every_model_available: true
        require_every_protocol_cell_valid: true
        minimum_synthetic_control_pass_rate: 0.8
        minimum_pairwise_order_consistency: 0.8
        require_abstention_field_coverage: 1.0
        require_exact_reproduction: true
        maximum_blocking_audit_flags: 0
        decision_rule: all_gates_must_pass
      failure_action: Stop before the full run, retain all pilot packets and failures,
        repair the mechanism or contract, version the pilot, and rerun it. Never lower
        a threshold after inspecting candidate results.
    stages:
    - id: repeatability
      models:
      - gpt-56-sol
      - gpt-56-luna
      - gpt-56-terra
      - claude-opus
      - composer
      prompt_variants:
      - direct_anchored
      - reflective_independent
      response_formats:
      - ordinal_with_abstention
      rationale_policies:
      - concise_evidence_and_reservation
      reasoning_modes:
      - standard
      evaluator_roles:
      - generalist_rater
      repetitions: 3
      item_scope: all_frozen_candidates_and_controls
    - id: cross_format_invariance
      models:
      - gpt-56-sol
      - claude-opus
      - composer
      prompt_variants:
      - direct_anchored
      response_formats:
      - ordinal_with_abstention
      - pairwise_both_orders
      - top_k_with_ties
      rationale_policies:
      - score_only
      - concise_evidence_and_reservation
      reasoning_modes:
      - standard
      evaluator_roles:
      - generalist_rater
      repetitions: 2
      item_scope: preregistered_boundary_subset_and_controls
    - id: role_lineage_reasoning
      models:
      - gpt-56-sol
      - gpt-56-luna
      - gpt-56-terra
      - claude-opus
      - composer
      prompt_variants:
      - direct_anchored
      response_formats:
      - ordinal_with_abstention
      rationale_policies:
      - concise_evidence_and_reservation
      reasoning_modes:
      - standard
      - extended_budget
      evaluator_roles:
      - generalist_rater
      - criterion_specialist
      repetitions: 2
      item_scope: preregistered_boundary_subset_and_controls
    diagnostics:
    - test_retest_stability
    - prompt_paraphrase_shift
    - ordinal_pairwise_ranking_compatibility
    - rationale_intervention_effect
    - reasoning_mode_effect
    - within_lineage_variant_dependence
    - leave_one_lineage_out_stability
    - role_incremental_information_conditional_on_lineage
    - abstention_coverage_and_selectivity
    - order_reversal_consistency
    success_rule: The practical application succeeds by revealing where conclusions
      are stable and where they are protocol-dependent. Producing no unique shortlist
      is a valid result.
random_seed: 20260719
weight_draws: 10000
weight_concentration: 80.0
repetitions_per_model_per_prompt: 5
prompt_variants:
- direct_anchored
- reflective_independent
v5_block_protocol:
  version: 1
  status: full_run_ready
  non_anchor_block_size: 6
  common_anchor_ids:
  - peter-paczolay
  - katalin-kariko
  include_all_synthetic_controls: true
  rerun_existing_candidates: true
  reuse_v4_scores: false
  linkage_method: within_model_prompt_repetition_common_anchor_centering
  full_run_requires_pilot_pass: true
  full_run_models: 1
  full_run_prompt_variants: 2
  full_run_repetitions: 5
  freeze:
    freeze_id: presidential-measurement-population-v5-71106ba6ea31
    freeze_hash: sha256:71106ba6ea31259061918f8c1ebfd0f5ffa8011560e5e92baa1ecce911e46c31
    frozen_at: '2026-08-02T23:21:04+02:00'
    frozen_by: Tamás Nagy
    freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
    legal_confirmation: false
    legal_reviewer: null
    do_not_establish:
    - legal_eligibility
    - official_candidacy
    - willingness
    - endorsement
    candidate_ids:
    - albert-laszlo-barabasi
    - andras-baka
    - andras-sajo
    - attila-chikan
    - balazs-gulyas
    - botond-roska
    - bela-merkely
    - cecilia-muller
    - csaba-korosi
    - csaba-pleh
    - diana-urge-vorsatz
    - eniko-bollobas
    - eniko-gyori
    - erno-rubik
    - gyorgy-buzsaki
    - gyorgy-suranyi
    - gyorgy-szapary
    - gyorgy-tilesch
    - gabor-bojar
    - gabor-halmai
    - gabor-ivanyi
    - gabor-torok
    - ignac-romsics
    - ildiko-enyedi
    - ilona-palne-kovacs
    - imre-voros
    - ivan-fischer
    - janos-martonyi
    - jozsef-palinkas
    - jozsef-peter-martin
    - julia-kiraly
    - katalin-bogyay
    - katalin-kariko
    - kinga-goncz
    - kornel-mundruczo
    - laczo-adrienn
    - laszlo-krasznahorkai
    - laszlo-majtenyi
    - laszlo-trocsanyi
    - miklos-perenyi
    - marta-pardavi
    - nora-l-ritok
    - pal-sonnevend
    - peter-balazs
    - peter-barandy
    - peter-darak
    - peter-kovacs
    - peter-kreko
    - peter-nadas
    - peter-paczolay
    - peter-rona
    - peter-akos-bod
    - robert-alfoldi
    - szilveszter-e-vizi
    - tamas-freund
    - tamas-sulyok
    - tamas-vicsek
    - tibor-navracsics
    - tunde-hando
    - vanda-lamm
    - zoltan-fleck
    - zsolt-enyedi
    - zsolt-hernadi
    - zsuzsanna-jakab
    - adam-fischer
    - eva-kondorosi
    candidate_count: 66
    amendment_provenance:
      type: human_panel_composition_exclusion
      prior_freeze_id: presidential-measurement-population-v5-855ce787f1f2
      prior_freeze_hash: sha256:855ce787f1f29552a482f842c8c2ec0b80ea4d0fa26d7b3607bd2ccdbb8554a0
      new_freeze_id: presidential-measurement-population-v5-71106ba6ea31
      new_freeze_hash: sha256:71106ba6ea31259061918f8c1ebfd0f5ffa8011560e5e92baa1ecce911e46c31
      reviewer: Tamás Nagy
      amended_at: '2026-08-02T23:21:04+02:00'
      removed_record_id: verify-judit-polgar
      removed_candidate_id: judit-polgar
      reason: Removed from the public research sample at Tamás Nagy's request; this
        is a human panel-composition decision and no legal eligibility or suitability
        finding is asserted.
      legal_finding: false
  frozen_blocks:
  - block_id: v5-block-01
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids:
    - adam-fischer
    - albert-laszlo-barabasi
    - andras-baka
    - andras-sajo
    - attila-chikan
    - balazs-gulyas
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    - adam-fischer
    - albert-laszlo-barabasi
    - andras-baka
    - andras-sajo
    - attila-chikan
    - balazs-gulyas
  - block_id: v5-block-02
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids:
    - bela-merkely
    - botond-roska
    - cecilia-muller
    - csaba-korosi
    - csaba-pleh
    - diana-urge-vorsatz
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    - bela-merkely
    - botond-roska
    - cecilia-muller
    - csaba-korosi
    - csaba-pleh
    - diana-urge-vorsatz
  - block_id: v5-block-03
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids:
    - eniko-bollobas
    - eniko-gyori
    - erno-rubik
    - eva-kondorosi
    - gabor-bojar
    - gabor-halmai
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    - eniko-bollobas
    - eniko-gyori
    - erno-rubik
    - eva-kondorosi
    - gabor-bojar
    - gabor-halmai
  - block_id: v5-block-04
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids:
    - gabor-ivanyi
    - gabor-torok
    - gyorgy-buzsaki
    - gyorgy-suranyi
    - gyorgy-szapary
    - gyorgy-tilesch
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    - gabor-ivanyi
    - gabor-torok
    - gyorgy-buzsaki
    - gyorgy-suranyi
    - gyorgy-szapary
    - gyorgy-tilesch
  - block_id: v5-block-05
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids:
    - ignac-romsics
    - ildiko-enyedi
    - ilona-palne-kovacs
    - imre-voros
    - ivan-fischer
    - janos-martonyi
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    - ignac-romsics
    - ildiko-enyedi
    - ilona-palne-kovacs
    - imre-voros
    - ivan-fischer
    - janos-martonyi
  - block_id: v5-block-06
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids:
    - jozsef-palinkas
    - jozsef-peter-martin
    - julia-kiraly
    - katalin-bogyay
    - kinga-goncz
    - kornel-mundruczo
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    - jozsef-palinkas
    - jozsef-peter-martin
    - julia-kiraly
    - katalin-bogyay
    - kinga-goncz
    - kornel-mundruczo
  - block_id: v5-block-07
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids:
    - laczo-adrienn
    - laszlo-krasznahorkai
    - laszlo-majtenyi
    - laszlo-trocsanyi
    - marta-pardavi
    - miklos-perenyi
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    - laczo-adrienn
    - laszlo-krasznahorkai
    - laszlo-majtenyi
    - laszlo-trocsanyi
    - marta-pardavi
    - miklos-perenyi
  - block_id: v5-block-08
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids:
    - nora-l-ritok
    - pal-sonnevend
    - peter-akos-bod
    - peter-balazs
    - peter-barandy
    - peter-darak
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    - nora-l-ritok
    - pal-sonnevend
    - peter-akos-bod
    - peter-balazs
    - peter-barandy
    - peter-darak
  - block_id: v5-block-09
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids:
    - peter-kovacs
    - peter-kreko
    - peter-nadas
    - peter-rona
    - robert-alfoldi
    - szilveszter-e-vizi
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    - peter-kovacs
    - peter-kreko
    - peter-nadas
    - peter-rona
    - robert-alfoldi
    - szilveszter-e-vizi
  - block_id: v5-block-10
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids:
    - tamas-freund
    - tamas-sulyok
    - tamas-vicsek
    - tibor-navracsics
    - tunde-hando
    - vanda-lamm
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    - tamas-freund
    - tamas-sulyok
    - tamas-vicsek
    - tibor-navracsics
    - tunde-hando
    - vanda-lamm
  - block_id: v5-block-11
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids:
    - zoltan-fleck
    - zsolt-enyedi
    - zsolt-hernadi
    - zsuzsanna-jakab
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    - zoltan-fleck
    - zsolt-enyedi
    - zsolt-hernadi
    - zsuzsanna-jakab
  - block_id: v5-block-12
    anchor_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
    non_anchor_ids: []
    candidate_ids:
    - peter-paczolay
    - katalin-kariko
judgment_scale:
  minimum: 1
  maximum: 10
  interpretation: An anchored ordinal expression of the model's subjective evaluative
    impression. It is not a probability, measurement of truth, or calibrated human-opinion
    estimate.
  anchors:
    '1': Extremely weak fit under this criterion in the model's subjective judgment.
    '3': Weak fit with substantial reservations.
    '5': Mixed or uncertain fit.
    '7': Strong fit with meaningful reservations.
    '9': Very strong fit with limited reservations.
    '10': Exceptional fit in the model's subjective judgment.
criteria:
- id: constitutional_guardianship
  label: Constitutional guardianship
  default_weight: 25
  definition: The model's subjective assessment of likely commitment to constitutional
    restraint, legal process, and institutional checks.
- id: political_independence
  label: Political independence
  default_weight: 20
  definition: The model's subjective assessment of likely autonomy from party command,
    patrons, and short-term factional incentives.
- id: capacity_to_unite
  label: Capacity to unite
  default_weight: 20
  definition: The model's subjective assessment of cross-group acceptability, symbolic
    inclusion, and low polarizing burden.
- id: public_trust_integrity
  label: Public trust and integrity
  default_weight: 15
  definition: The model's subjective assessment of integrity, credibility, accountability,
    and likely public trust.
- id: institutional_leadership
  label: Institutional leadership
  default_weight: 10
  definition: The model's subjective assessment of capacity to lead a complex public
    institution responsibly.
- id: international_representation
  label: International representation
  default_weight: 10
  definition: The model's subjective assessment of diplomatic presence, international
    credibility, and ability to represent Hungary abroad.
legacy_subcriteria_not_scored:
- id: constitutional_expertise
  parent_id: constitutional_guardianship
  label: Constitutional and legal expertise
  measurement_type: F
  weight_within_parent: 30
  definition: Documented constitutional, judicial, legal, or equivalent rule-bound
    professional experience.
- id: rule_of_law_record
  parent_id: constitutional_guardianship
  label: Rule-of-law record
  measurement_type: J
  weight_within_parent: 40
  definition: Evidence-anchored record of protecting legal process, institutional
    checks, or fundamental rights.
- id: pressure_conduct
  parent_id: constitutional_guardianship
  label: Conduct under institutional pressure
  measurement_type: J
  weight_within_parent: 30
  definition: Documented conduct when institutional, political, or professional pressure
    conflicted with rule-bound judgment.
- id: freedom_from_formal_partisanship
  parent_id: political_independence
  label: Freedom from formal partisanship
  measurement_type: F
  weight_within_parent: 30
  definition: Documented absence or bounded extent of formal party office, candidacy,
    party-group employment, or partisan executive service.
  scoring_anchors:
    '0': Current or repeated senior party leadership or candidacy.
    '25': Documented partisan executive service or party-group employment.
    '50': Bounded political advisory or appointed service without party office.
    '75': Comprehensive record documents no formal partisan role, with limited indirect
      exposure.
    '100': Exceptional sustained non-partisan service independently verified across
      political environments.
- id: cross_government_autonomy
  parent_id: political_independence
  label: Cross-government professional autonomy
  measurement_type: J
  weight_within_parent: 30
  definition: Evidence that professional legitimacy or service persisted across materially
    different political environments.
- id: independence_under_pressure
  parent_id: political_independence
  label: Independence under pressure
  measurement_type: J
  weight_within_parent: 40
  definition: Direct evidence of maintaining professional or institutional judgment
    against pressure from a patron, party, or government.
- id: cross_group_acceptance
  parent_id: capacity_to_unite
  label: Measured cross-group acceptance
  measurement_type: P
  weight_within_parent: 30
  definition: Candidate-level survey or panel evidence of acceptance across political
    or social groups.
- id: bridge_building_record
  parent_id: capacity_to_unite
  label: Bridge-building record
  measurement_type: J
  weight_within_parent: 40
  definition: Documented mediation, coalition-building, broad civic service, or institution-building
    across groups.
- id: freedom_from_polarizing_burden
  parent_id: capacity_to_unite
  label: Freedom from polarizing burden
  measurement_type: J
  weight_within_parent: 30
  definition: Evidence about factional burden and major public conflicts, distinguishing
    principled pressure from candidate-caused polarization.
- id: official_integrity_record
  parent_id: public_trust_integrity
  label: Official integrity record
  measurement_type: F
  weight_within_parent: 35
  definition: Relevant official findings, verified adverse records, or authoritative
    findings supporting role-related conduct.
- id: transparency_accountability
  parent_id: public_trust_integrity
  label: Transparency and accountability
  measurement_type: J
  weight_within_parent: 30
  definition: Documented conflict disclosure, correction, accountability, or comparable
    transparency behavior.
- id: measured_public_trust
  parent_id: public_trust_integrity
  label: Measured candidate-level public trust
  measurement_type: P
  weight_within_parent: 35
  definition: Candidate-level representative polling or declared stakeholder-panel
    measurement; profession-level trust is inadmissible.
- id: leadership_scope
  parent_id: institutional_leadership
  label: Leadership scope and complexity
  measurement_type: F
  weight_within_parent: 35
  definition: Documented responsibility for a complex public, civic, academic, scientific,
    corporate, or international institution.
- id: measurable_leadership_outcomes
  parent_id: institutional_leadership
  label: Measurable leadership outcomes
  measurement_type: F
  weight_within_parent: 35
  definition: Quantified institutional reach, delivery, stability, or other role-attributable
    outcomes.
- id: crisis_governance
  parent_id: institutional_leadership
  label: Crisis and governance record
  measurement_type: J
  weight_within_parent: 30
  definition: Evidence-anchored conduct in crisis management, institutional reform,
    or high-accountability governance.
- id: international_roles
  parent_id: international_representation
  label: International institutional roles
  measurement_type: F
  weight_within_parent: 30
  definition: Documented service or leadership in international institutions.
- id: diplomatic_representation
  parent_id: international_representation
  label: Diplomatic and representative record
  measurement_type: J
  weight_within_parent: 25
  definition: Documented negotiation, diplomacy, or formal representation across national
    boundaries.
- id: languages_cross_cultural
  parent_id: international_representation
  label: Languages and cross-cultural capability
  measurement_type: F
  weight_within_parent: 20
  definition: Documented language capability or sustained cross-cultural professional
    work relevant to representation.
- id: international_recognition
  parent_id: international_representation
  label: International recognition
  measurement_type: F
  weight_within_parent: 25
  definition: Verified international recognition, separated from domestic trust or
    political suitability.
legacy_anchors_not_scored:
- score: 0
  meaning: No relevant evidence or strong contrary evidence.
- score: 25
  meaning: Limited indirect exposure; presidential-level confidence unsupported.
- score: 50
  meaning: Relevant credible record with material gaps.
- score: 75
  meaning: Strong direct record with bounded reservations.
- score: 100
  meaning: Exceptional and directly demonstrated evidence for the criterion.
profiles:
  balanced:
    label: Balanced
    weights:
    - 25
    - 20
    - 20
    - 15
    - 10
    - 10
  constitutional_safety:
    label: Constitutional safety
    weights:
    - 35
    - 20
    - 15
    - 10
    - 10
    - 10
  national_unity:
    label: National unity
    weights:
    - 15
    - 15
    - 30
    - 20
    - 10
    - 10
  international_stature:
    label: International stature
    weights:
    - 20
    - 15
    - 15
    - 15
    - 10
    - 25
synthetic_controls:
- id: control-consensus-guardian
  display_name: Synthetic control A
  profile: A non-partisan former constitutional judge with twenty years of documented
    rule-of-law service, leadership across governments, multilingual diplomatic experience,
    broad cross-group appointments, transparent interests, and no documented integrity
    finding.
  expected_ranges:
    constitutional_guardianship:
    - 8
    - 10
    political_independence:
    - 7
    - 10
    capacity_to_unite:
    - 7
    - 10
    public_trust_integrity:
    - 7
    - 10
    institutional_leadership:
    - 7
    - 10
    international_representation:
    - 7
    - 10
- id: control-partisan-celebrity
  display_name: Synthetic control B
  profile: A globally famous cultural figure with no legal or institutional leadership
    experience, recent senior party-campaign activity, highly polarizing public rhetoric,
    and substantial international name recognition.
  expected_ranges:
    constitutional_guardianship:
    - 1
    - 4
    political_independence:
    - 1
    - 3
    capacity_to_unite:
    - 1
    - 4
    public_trust_integrity:
    - 3
    - 7
    institutional_leadership:
    - 1
    - 4
    international_representation:
    - 6
    - 9
- id: control-unknown-technocrat
  display_name: Synthetic control C
  profile: A low-profile career technocrat with ten years of competent management,
    no known party office, limited public visibility, no diplomatic experience, and
    insufficient information about broader trust or unifying appeal.
  expected_ranges:
    constitutional_guardianship:
    - 4
    - 7
    political_independence:
    - 5
    - 8
    capacity_to_unite:
    - 3
    - 6
    public_trust_integrity:
    - 4
    - 7
    institutional_leadership:
    - 5
    - 8
    international_representation:
    - 1
    - 4
scorers:
- run_id: scorer-codex-sol
  model_family: openai
  model: gpt-5.6-sol
  engine: codex_cli
  invocation_profile: isolated_no_mcp
auditors:
- run_id: factual-recall-auditor
  role: factual_consistency
  model_family: openai
  model: gpt-5.6-sol
  engine: codex_cli
  invocation_profile: isolated_no_mcp
- run_id: bias-auditor
  role: bias_consistency
  model_family: openai
  model: gpt-5.6-sol
  engine: codex_cli
  invocation_profile: isolated_no_mcp
candidates:
- id: albert-laszlo-barabasi
  display_name: Albert-László Barabási
  included_because: His name appeared in a 2026 survey concerning possible Hungarian
    presidents; this was public discourse, not nomination.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids:
  - barabasi-northeastern
  - barabasi-nas
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: andras-baka
  display_name: András Baka
  included_because: Former presidential nominee Péter Róna publicly proposed Baka
    for the transitional Hungarian presidency in July 2026.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids:
  - baka-coe-cv
  - baka-echr
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: andras-sajo
  display_name: András Sajó
  included_because: He was Vice-President and a judge of the European Court of Human
    Rights and legal counsellor to Hungary's first freely elected president.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: attila-chikan
  display_name: Attila Chikán
  included_because: He served as Hungary's Minister of Economic Affairs in 1998–1999.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: balazs-gulyas
  display_name: Balázs Gulyás
  included_because: He is President of the HUN-REN Hungarian Research Network and
    head of its Governing Board.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: botond-roska
  display_name: Botond Roska
  included_because: He is Director of Science at the Institute of Molecular and Clinical
    Ophthalmology Basel and leads a research group there.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: bela-merkely
  display_name: Béla Merkely
  included_because: His recognition and popularity were measured among possible presidential
    names after Katalin Novák's 2024 resignation; this was not nomination.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: cecilia-muller
  display_name: Cecília Müller
  included_because: She served as Hungary's Chief Medical Officer and head of the
    National Public Health Center from 2018 to 2025.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: csaba-korosi
  display_name: Csaba Kőrösi
  included_because: He served as Hungary's Permanent Representative to the United
    Nations, deputy state secretary and Director of Environmental Sustainability in
    the Office of the President.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: csaba-pleh
  display_name: Csaba Pléh
  included_because: He is a full member and former Deputy Secretary-General of the
    Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: diana-urge-vorsatz
  display_name: Diána Ürge-Vorsatz
  included_because: She is Vice-Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    and an internationally recognized Hungarian climate scientist.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: eniko-bollobas
  display_name: Enikő Bollobás
  included_because: She previously served as deputy chief of mission and chargé d'affaires
    at Hungary's Washington embassy and as a Foreign Ministry department director.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: eniko-gyori
  display_name: Enikő Győri
  included_because: She served as Hungary's ambassador to Italy and Spain and as Minister
    of State for European Affairs.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: erno-rubik
  display_name: Ernő Rubik
  included_because: Rubik created the globally recognized Rubik's Cube and is an internationally
    distinguished inventor, architect, designer, and educator.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: gyorgy-buzsaki
  display_name: György Buzsáki
  included_because: He is an internationally recognised systems neuroscientist, Brain
    Prize recipient, and member of major scientific academies.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: gyorgy-suranyi
  display_name: György Surányi
  included_because: A 2026 Magyar Hang contribution expressly suggested Surányi for
    president.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: gyorgy-szapary
  display_name: György Szapáry
  included_because: Szapáry served as Hungary's Ambassador to the United States from
    2011 to 2015.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: gyorgy-tilesch
  display_name: György Tilesch
  included_because: He is president and founder of the PHI Institute for Augmented
    Intelligence and serves as EY's Chief AI Expert.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: gabor-bojar
  display_name: Gábor Bojár
  included_because: His name appeared in 2026 public discussion of possible presidents,
    but not as a constitutional nomination.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: gabor-halmai
  display_name: Gábor Halmai
  included_because: He was chief counsellor to the president of the Hungarian Constitutional
    Court and vice-chair of the National Election Commission.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: gabor-ivanyi
  display_name: Gábor Iványi
  included_because: He leads the Hungarian Evangelical Fellowship and chairs the Oltalom
    Charity Association, with decades of social-service and educational institution
    building.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: gabor-torok
  display_name: Gábor Török
  included_because: He appeared in a 2026 public-opinion research list concerning
    possible presidents.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids:
  - torok-cv
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: ignac-romsics
  display_name: Ignác Romsics
  included_because: He is a full member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and has
    led major academic programmes and institutions.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: ildiko-enyedi
  display_name: Ildikó Enyedi
  included_because: Writer György Dragomán publicly proposed Enyedi for the presidency
    in July 2026.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: ilona-palne-kovacs
  display_name: Ilona Pálné Kovács
  included_because: She is a full member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and
    has led major regional-science institutions.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: imre-voros
  display_name: Imre Vörös
  included_because: He served as a judge of Hungary's Constitutional Court from 1990
    to 1998.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: ivan-fischer
  display_name: Iván Fischer
  included_because: A 2026 Magyar Hang contribution expressly suggested Fischer for
    president.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: janos-martonyi
  display_name: János Martonyi
  included_because: His name appeared in 2021 succession speculation and a leaked
    2026 presidential-attitudes survey.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: jozsef-palinkas
  display_name: József Pálinkás
  included_because: Second Reform Era leader Gábor Vona publicly proposed him in June
    2026.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids:
  - palinkas-mta
  - palinkas-wsf
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: jozsef-peter-martin
  display_name: József Péter Martin
  included_because: He has led Transparency International Hungary as Executive Director
    since 2013 and also teaches public policy at Corvinus University of Budapest.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: julia-kiraly
  display_name: Júlia Király
  included_because: She served as deputy governor of the National Bank of Hungary
    from 2007 to 2013.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids:
  - kiraly-bruegel
  - kiraly-yale
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: katalin-bogyay
  display_name: Katalin Bogyay
  included_because: She represented Hungary at the United Nations and UNESCO and presided
    over UNESCO's 36th General Conference.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: katalin-kariko
  display_name: Katalin Karikó
  included_because: She received the 2023 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine and
    holds a professorship at the University of Szeged.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids:
  - kariko-nobel
  - kariko-nas
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: kinga-goncz
  display_name: Kinga Göncz
  included_because: National reporting in December 2004 discussed her as a possible
    presidential nominee; this did not become a verified parliamentary nomination.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: kornel-mundruczo
  display_name: Kornél Mundruczó
  included_because: He is an internationally awarded film and theatre director whose
    work has repeatedly represented Hungarian cinema at Cannes and other major festivals.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: laczo-adrienn
  display_name: Laczó Adrienn
  included_because: A dated, named civil initiative publicly proposed Laczó Adrienn
    for President of Hungary, and she subsequently said she would consider candidacy
    if formally asked.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: conditional_willingness_verified
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: laszlo-krasznahorkai
  display_name: László Krasznahorkai
  included_because: He appeared in a 2026 public-opinion research list and subsequent
    national presidential discussion.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids:
  - krasznahorkai-nobel
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: laszlo-majtenyi
  display_name: László Majtényi
  included_because: He was validly nominated by 43 members of the National Assembly
    in the 2017 presidential election and was not elected.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: historical_acceptance_only
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: laszlo-trocsanyi
  display_name: László Trócsányi
  included_because: National reporting identified him as a possible successor in the
    2022 and 2024 presidential selections, but he was not the parliamentary nominee.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: miklos-perenyi
  display_name: Miklós Perényi
  included_because: He is an internationally prominent cellist, Kossuth Prize recipient,
    Artist of the Nation, and long-serving Liszt Academy professor.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: marta-pardavi
  display_name: Márta Pardavi
  included_because: She has served as co-chair of the Hungarian Helsinki Committee
    since 2007.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: nora-l-ritok
  display_name: Nóra L. Ritók
  included_because: A 2022 Magyar Hang commentary proposed her as a possible opposition
    counter-candidate; this was commentary, not an official nomination.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: pal-sonnevend
  display_name: Pál Sonnevend
  included_because: He advised two Hungarian presidents, led the presidential office's
    constitutional-law department, and has represented Hungary before the International
    Court of Justice.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: peter-balazs
  display_name: Péter Balázs
  included_because: He served as Hungary's ambassador to Denmark, Germany, and the
    European Union, as foreign minister, and as Hungary's first European commissioner.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: peter-barandy
  display_name: Péter Bárándy
  included_because: He previously entered formal political presidential consideration
    and withdrew for insufficient parliamentary support.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: conditional
  evidence_ids:
  - barandy-elte
  - barandy-biography
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: peter-darak
  display_name: Péter Darák
  included_because: He led Hungary's highest court and remains a senior judge.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: peter-kovacs
  display_name: Péter Kovács
  included_because: He served as a judge of Hungary's Constitutional Court from 2005
    to 2014, as a Hungarian diplomat, and as an International Criminal Court judge
    from 2015.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: peter-kreko
  display_name: Péter Krekó
  included_because: He is Director and owner of Political Capital Institute, leads
    Hungary's national anti-disinformation hub, and is an associate professor at Eötvös
    Loránd University.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: peter-nadas
  display_name: Péter Nádas
  included_because: He is a Kossuth Prize-winning writer, founding member of the Digital
    Literary Academy, and internationally recognized representative of Hungarian literature.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: peter-paczolay
  display_name: Péter Paczolay
  included_because: He served as President of Hungary's Constitutional Court, head
    of the President's Office, ambassador to Italy, and Hungarian judge at the European
    Court of Human Rights.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids:
  - paczolay-court
  - paczolay-europe
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: peter-rona
  display_name: Péter Róna
  included_because: He was formally nominated and received 51 parliamentary votes
    in the 2022 Hungarian presidential election.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: historically_affirmative_2022_current_unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: peter-akos-bod
  display_name: Péter Ákos Bod
  included_because: A 2026 national-media survey of names discussed for the presidency
    included him; this was speculation, not nomination.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: robert-alfoldi
  display_name: Róbert Alföldi
  included_because: He led the National Theatre of Hungary as general director from
    1 July 2008 through 30 June 2013.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: szilveszter-e-vizi
  display_name: Szilveszter E. Vizi
  included_because: Vizi served two terms as president of the Hungarian Academy of
    Sciences from 2002 to 2008.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: tamas-freund
  display_name: Tamás Freund
  included_because: His name was publicly discussed in 2024 as a possible successor
    to Katalin Novák; no official nomination followed.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: tamas-sulyok
  display_name: Tamás Sulyok
  included_because: Parliament elected him President of Hungary in February 2024.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: historically_affirmative_current_unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: tamas-vicsek
  display_name: Tamás Vicsek
  included_because: He is a regular member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and
    professor emeritus at ELTE, with extensive research-group and department leadership.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: tibor-navracsics
  display_name: Tibor Navracsics
  included_because: He was publicly discussed and polled as a possible president in
    February 2024; he said he had not been approached and had not considered it.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: not_established
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: tunde-hando
  display_name: Tünde Handó
  included_because: She has served as a member of Hungary's Constitutional Court since
    2020.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: vanda-lamm
  display_name: Vanda Lamm
  included_because: She is an international-law scholar with service in international
    arbitration and conciliation bodies.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: zoltan-fleck
  display_name: Zoltán Fleck
  included_because: Fleck is a senior legal sociologist and professor specializing
    in rule-of-law institutions and legal culture.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: zsolt-enyedi
  display_name: Zsolt Enyedi
  included_because: Enyedi served as CEU pro-rector for Hungarian affairs and led
    its political-science department and doctoral school.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: zsolt-hernadi
  display_name: Zsolt Hernádi
  included_because: He has been Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of MOL Group
    since 2001, leading a nationally significant energy company.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: zsuzsanna-jakab
  display_name: Zsuzsanna Jakab
  included_because: She served as State Secretary at Hungary's Ministry of Health,
    Social and Family Affairs from 2002 to 2005.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: adam-fischer
  display_name: Ádám Fischer
  included_because: Internationally prominent conductor, founder of the Austro-Hungarian
    Haydn Philharmonie, and artistic director of the Budapest Wagner Days.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
- id: eva-kondorosi
  display_name: Éva Kondorosi
  included_because: She founded the BAYGEN Institute and remains a senior research
    leader at the HUN-REN Biological Research Centre.
  eligibility_status: human_approved_research_population_pending_legal_confirmation
  willingness_status: unknown
  evidence_ids: []
  freeze_basis: human_approved_measurement_population
  legal_confirmation: false
  do_not_establish:
  - legal_eligibility
  - official_candidacy
  - willingness
  - endorsement
evidence:
- id: paczolay-court
  candidate_id: peter-paczolay
  criterion_ids:
  - constitutional_guardianship
  - institutional_leadership
  - political_independence
  subcriterion_ids:
  - constitutional_expertise
  - rule_of_law_record
  - cross_government_autonomy
  - leadership_scope
  claim: Paczolay served as a Constitutional Court judge from 2006 and as President
    of the Court from 2008 to 2015; he had earlier been chief counsellor and Secretary
    General of the Court and led the Office of the President.
  source_title: Péter Paczolay — Former member
  source_url: https://hunconcourt.hu/former-members/dr-peter-paczolay/
  publisher: Constitutional Court of Hungary
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_official
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: Official biography paragraphs on Court and presidential-office
    service.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: paczolay-europe
  candidate_id: peter-paczolay
  criterion_ids:
  - constitutional_guardianship
  - institutional_leadership
  - international_representation
  subcriterion_ids:
  - constitutional_expertise
  - rule_of_law_record
  - leadership_scope
  - international_roles
  - diplomatic_representation
  claim: Paczolay has served as an ECHR judge since 2017 and previously served in
    leadership roles in the Venice Commission.
  source_title: Péter Paczolay
  source_url: https://mcc.hu/en/eloado/peter-paczolay
  publisher: Mathias Corvinus Collegium
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: reputable_secondary
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: Biography paragraphs on ECHR and Venice Commission roles.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: baka-coe-cv
  candidate_id: andras-baka
  criterion_ids:
  - constitutional_guardianship
  - institutional_leadership
  - international_representation
  subcriterion_ids:
  - constitutional_expertise
  - rule_of_law_record
  - leadership_scope
  - international_roles
  - diplomatic_representation
  claim: Baka served at the European Court of Human Rights from 1991 to 2008 and as
    President of Hungary's Supreme Court and National Judicial Council from 2009 to
    2011.
  source_title: Curriculum Vitae of András Baka
  source_url: https://rm.coe.int/cv-of-andras-baka-deputy-chair-hungary-2018-2021/16807b6a81
  publisher: Council of Europe
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_official
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: Professional functions section.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: baka-echr
  candidate_id: andras-baka
  criterion_ids:
  - constitutional_guardianship
  - political_independence
  - public_trust_integrity
  subcriterion_ids:
  - rule_of_law_record
  - pressure_conduct
  - independence_under_pressure
  - official_integrity_record
  claim: The ECHR Grand Chamber found that the premature termination of Baka's Supreme
    Court presidency after criticism of judicial reforms violated his Convention rights.
  source_title: Grand Chamber judgment Baka v. Hungary
  source_url: https://hudoc.echr.coe.int/app/conversion/pdf/?filename=Grand+Chamber+judgment+Baka+v.+Hungary+-+premature+termination+of+the+President+of+the+Hungarian+Supreme+Court&id=003-5416083-6778858&library=ECHR
  publisher: European Court of Human Rights
  published_at: '2016-06-23'
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_official
  supports: mixed
  quote_or_locator: Principal facts and Grand Chamber findings; independence evidence
    with possible polarization.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: kariko-nobel
  candidate_id: katalin-kariko
  criterion_ids:
  - international_representation
  subcriterion_ids:
  - international_recognition
  claim: Karikó received the 2023 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for discoveries
    enabling effective mRNA vaccines and was affiliated with the University of Szeged
    and University of Pennsylvania. This establishes professional credibility and
    international stature, not candidate-level public support.
  source_title: Katalin Karikó — Facts
  source_url: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2023/kariko/facts/
  publisher: Nobel Prize Outreach
  published_at: '2023-10-02'
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_official
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: Prize facts, motivation, and affiliations.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: kariko-nas
  candidate_id: katalin-kariko
  criterion_ids:
  - institutional_leadership
  - international_representation
  subcriterion_ids:
  - leadership_scope
  - international_roles
  - international_recognition
  claim: Karikó is a University of Szeged professor, Penn adjunct professor, former
    BioNTech senior vice president, and a 2025 US National Academy of Sciences member.
  source_title: Katalin Karikó
  source_url: https://www.nasonline.org/directory-entry/katalin-kariko-44rksj/
  publisher: US National Academy of Sciences
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_official
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: Biosketch and membership fields.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: barabasi-northeastern
  candidate_id: albert-laszlo-barabasi
  criterion_ids:
  - institutional_leadership
  - international_representation
  subcriterion_ids:
  - leadership_scope
  - international_roles
  claim: Barabási is a University Distinguished Professor at Northeastern and directs
    the Center for Complex Network Research. These roles establish professional credibility,
    not candidate-level public support.
  source_title: Albert-László Barabási
  source_url: https://www.khoury.northeastern.edu/people/albert-laszlo-barabasi/
  publisher: Northeastern University
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_official
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: Current roles and biography.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: barabasi-nas
  candidate_id: albert-laszlo-barabasi
  criterion_ids:
  - international_representation
  subcriterion_ids:
  - languages_cross_cultural
  - international_recognition
  claim: The US National Academy of Sciences describes Barabási as Hungarian-born,
    internationally affiliated, an elected member of several academies, and a pioneer
    of network science.
  source_title: Albert-László Barabási
  source_url: https://www.nasonline.org/directory-entry/albert-laszlo-barabasi-t0dffl/
  publisher: US National Academy of Sciences
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_official
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: Biosketch, memberships, and research contribution.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: torok-cv
  candidate_id: gabor-torok
  criterion_ids:
  - political_independence
  - institutional_leadership
  - capacity_to_unite
  subcriterion_ids:
  - freedom_from_formal_partisanship
  - cross_government_autonomy
  - bridge_building_record
  - freedom_from_polarizing_burden
  - leadership_scope
  claim: Török is a political scientist and ELTE associate professor, directs a political-analysis
    firm, advised President László Sólyom from 2006 to 2010, and earlier led an institute
    attached to the SZDSZ parliamentary group.
  source_title: Gábor Török — Curriculum Vitae
  source_url: http://www.torokgabor.com/index.php?cat=2&page=oldal
  publisher: Gábor Török
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_personal
  supports: mixed
  quote_or_locator: Academic career and political analysis and consulting sections.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: krasznahorkai-nobel
  candidate_id: laszlo-krasznahorkai
  criterion_ids:
  - international_representation
  subcriterion_ids:
  - international_recognition
  claim: Krasznahorkai received the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature for his Hungarian-language
    literary oeuvre.
  source_title: László Krasznahorkai — Facts
  source_url: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/literature/2025/krasznahorkai/facts/
  publisher: Nobel Prize Outreach
  published_at: '2025-10-09'
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_official
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: Prize facts and motivation.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: palinkas-mta
  candidate_id: jozsef-palinkas
  criterion_ids:
  - political_independence
  - institutional_leadership
  subcriterion_ids:
  - freedom_from_formal_partisanship
  - leadership_scope
  claim: Pálinkás led the Hungarian Academy of Sciences from 2008 to 2014, served
    as education minister in 2001–2002, and led the National Research, Development
    and Innovation Office from 2015 to 2018.
  source_title: Pálinkás József
  source_url: https://akademikus.mtak.hu/adatlap/palinkas-jozsef/
  publisher: Hungarian Academy of Sciences
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_official
  supports: mixed
  quote_or_locator: Biographical summary of academy, ministry, and research-office
    roles.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: palinkas-wsf
  candidate_id: jozsef-palinkas
  criterion_ids:
  - institutional_leadership
  - international_representation
  subcriterion_ids:
  - leadership_scope
  - international_roles
  - diplomatic_representation
  claim: Pálinkás served as World Science Forum president and represented the Hungarian
    Academy in international science organizations.
  source_title: Prof. József Pálinkás
  source_url: https://worldscienceforum.org/participants/palinkas-jozsef-64486
  publisher: World Science Forum
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: reputable_secondary
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: CV paragraphs on international and academy leadership.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: kiraly-bruegel
  candidate_id: julia-kiraly
  criterion_ids:
  - institutional_leadership
  - international_representation
  - political_independence
  subcriterion_ids:
  - cross_government_autonomy
  - leadership_scope
  - crisis_governance
  - international_roles
  claim: Király served as Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Hungary responsible
    for financial stability during 2007–2013 and later as an independent KBC Group
    board member and Hellenic stability-fund panelist.
  source_title: Júlia Király
  source_url: https://www.bruegel.org/people/julia-kiraly
  publisher: Bruegel
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: reputable_secondary
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: Professional biography.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: kiraly-yale
  candidate_id: julia-kiraly
  criterion_ids:
  - institutional_leadership
  subcriterion_ids:
  - crisis_governance
  claim: Yale's Journal of Financial Crises describes Király's role overseeing Hungary's
    emergency response to the global financial crisis and her academic work on crisis
    management.
  source_title: 'Lessons Learned: Júlia Király'
  source_url: https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/journal-of-financial-crises/vol6/iss1/24/
  publisher: Yale Program on Financial Stability
  published_at: '2024-03-28'
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: independent_research
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: Abstract.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: barandy-elte
  candidate_id: peter-barandy
  criterion_ids:
  - constitutional_guardianship
  - institutional_leadership
  subcriterion_ids:
  - constitutional_expertise
  - leadership_scope
  claim: ELTE lists Bárándy as a lawyer, former justice minister, and lecturer in
    its criminal-law department.
  source_title: Dr. Bárándy Péter
  source_url: https://www.ajk.elte.hu/munkatarsak/dr-barandy-peter
  publisher: Eötvös Loránd University Faculty of Law
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_official
  supports: positive
  quote_or_locator: Role and department fields.
  reviewer_status: verified
- id: barandy-biography
  candidate_id: peter-barandy
  criterion_ids:
  - constitutional_guardianship
  - institutional_leadership
  - political_independence
  subcriterion_ids:
  - constitutional_expertise
  - freedom_from_formal_partisanship
  - leadership_scope
  claim: Bárándy's archived professional biography records a long criminal-law and
    bar-association career, university teaching, and service as justice minister from
    2002 to 2004.
  source_title: Dr. Péter Bárándy — Biography
  source_url: https://web.archive.org/web/20080512013427/http:/www.barandypeter.hu/index.php
  publisher: Archived personal professional site
  published_at: null
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_personal
  supports: mixed
  quote_or_locator: Professional, teaching, bar-association, and ministerial biography.
  reviewer_status: verified
global_evidence:
- id: constitutional-process
  claim: The President is elected by the National Assembly; nomination requires written
    recommendation by at least one fifth of Members of Parliament.
  source_title: The Fundamental Law of Hungary
  source_url: https://www.parlament.hu/documents/125505/138409/Fundamental+law/73811993-c377-428d-9808-ee03d6fb8178
  publisher: Hungarian National Assembly
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: primary_official
  quote_or_locator: The State, Article 11.
- id: profession-trust-context
  claim: A 2026 MTA/Medián survey reported high trust in scientists and low trust
    in politicians. It is profession-level context and cannot establish candidate-level
    support.
  source_title: Hungarian society continues to trust scientists and the Hungarian
    Academy of Sciences most
  source_url: https://mta.hu/mta_hirei/a-magyar-tarsadalom-tovabbra-is-a-tudosokban-es-a-magyar-tudomanyos-akademiaban-bizik-a-legjobban-115210
  publisher: Hungarian Academy of Sciences
  accessed_at: '2026-07-19'
  quality_class: independent_research
  quote_or_locator: Survey summary and profession rankings.
