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One Number Rules Finance: The Latent Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles

Dr. Tamás Nagy Updated 2026-04-09 Short Draft quantitative finance / mathematical economics Lean-Verified
Mathematics verified. Core theorems are machine-checked in Lean 4. Prose and presentation may not have been human-reviewed.
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Abstract

We resolve three longstanding anomalies in asset pricing — the equity premium puzzle, the Fama-French factor zoo, and the failure of single-factor models — through a single spectral parameter: the Latent Number \(\rho\). The Latent framework decomposes any stochastic discount factor (SDF) into spectral components \(M = \sum_i a_i \varphi_i\) ordered by eigenvalue magnitude. When \(\rho > 1\), the persistence–spectral link in the formal model multiplies effective consumption variance by \(\rho\) (single-period encoding) relative to the i.i.d. benchmark, tightening Hansen–Jagannathan bounds and resolving the Mehra–Prescott puzzle without requiring implausible risk aversion. The same spectral ordering yields a geometric tail on factor weights; for \(\rho = 2\), the first three components capture at least 98% of SDF variance (Theorem 6), while the analytic complexity bound \(k^ = \lceil \log(1/\varepsilon) / \log(\rho) \rceil\) gives \(k^ = 4\)–\(6\) for \(\varepsilon \in \{0.1,\,0.02\}\). We establish a bridge to Markowitz mean-variance optimization: under the Latent variance scaling used in the proofs, the maximal squared Sharpe ratio scales proportionally to \(\rho\), hence the Sharpe ratio itself scales by \(\sqrt{\rho}\). All results are machine-verified: 90 theorems across 5 proof files, 0 axioms.

Length
2,344 words
Claims
17 theorems
Status
Draft

Novelty

Reframing equity premium, factor zoo, and CAPM recovery as consequences of a single spectral eigenvalue ratio (the Latent Number rho) applied to the SDF decomposition, with machine-verified algebraic proofs.

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