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Common Pricing, Different Portfolios

Dr. Tamás Nagy Updated 2026-03-12 Draft Quantitative Finance Lean-Verified
Mathematics verified. Core theorems are machine-checked in Lean 4. Prose and presentation may not have been human-reviewed.
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Abstract

We propose a mode-space formulation in which equilibrium pricing and portfolio choice are organized around a common benchmark rather than treated as separate layers. Let returns be resolved into orthogonal modes \(c_k\) with per-mode premiums \(\pi_k\), variances \(v_k = \mathrm{Var}(c_k)\), and market weights \(w_k^{\mathrm{mkt}}\). The strongest static restriction used in the main theorem is \[ \pi_k = \lambda \, w_k^{\mathrm{mkt}} v_k \] and the mean-variance first-order condition \[ w_k^* = \frac{\pi_k}{\lambda v_k} \] are inverse readings of the same identity, implying the fully harvested benchmark allocation \[ w_k^{\infty} = w_k^{\mathrm{mkt}}. \] The static theorem therefore says that, in equilibrium, the market portfolio is the common benchmark exposure in mode space.

Paired with companion lifecycle results from the same research program, this benchmark admits the intertemporal reading \[ w_k^{\mathrm{life}} = w_k^{\infty} \cdot \mathbb{E}[h_k] \cdot b_k \cdot s_k = w_k^{\mathrm{mkt}} \cdot \mathbb{E}[h_k] \cdot b_k \cdot s_k, \] where \(\mathbb{E}[h_k]\) is expected fin_harvestability at the investor's effective horizon, \(b_k\) is a Bayesian caution term, and \(s_k\) is a safety multiplier. The central economic implication is that investors can share one equilibrium pricing law and still rationally hold different portfolios, because what differs across investors is not necessarily priced return but fin_harvestability.

The formal spine is machine-verified in Lean 4. It establishes mode-wise variance and premium decomposition, diagonal Markowitz optimality, the pricing-allocation equivalence, and derived CCAPM, SDF, and Arrow-Debreu routes into a broader family of mode-specific prices of risk \(\lambda_k\), with explicit bridge theorems for when that family collapses to the scalar case. The paper's boundary is equally clear: it does not yet identify the canonical market basis, prove universal scalar collapse, or claim empirical validation. Its contribution is structural and economic at once: it identifies the common equilibrium benchmark and shows how lifecycle, horizon, and bequest effects can be interpreted as investor-specific harvesting filters layered on top of that benchmark.

Length
7,021 words
Status
Draft

Novelty

Recasting the pricing-allocation duality as literal inverse readings of one mode-wise identity, and embedding the scalar CAPM collapse inside a formally verified hierarchy of route-level mode prices of risk.

Connects To

Harvestability Universal Foundations: A Verified Library of Core Mathematic...

Referenced By

Latent Probability: Conditional Dependence as Graded Spectra... Calibrating Harvestability Calibrating Harvestability

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