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Spectral XVA: Replacing Monte Carlo in Counterparty Credit Risk

Tamás Nagy, Ph.D. Updated 2026-03-07 Short Draft Quantitative Finance
Unreviewed draft. This paper has not been human-reviewed. Mathematical claims may be unverified. Use with appropriate caution.
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Abstract

We propose a spectral method for computing Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) and related XVA metrics that eliminates Monte Carlo simulation entirely. The Fokker--Planck generator of the interest rate process is discretized in cosine basis, producing a matrix \(M \in \mathbb{R}^{N \times N}\) from which the expected exposure profile at any future date is computed via matrix exponential: \(A(t) = e^{Mt}A(0)\). The expected positive exposure \(\mathbb{E}[\max(V(r_t), 0)]\) --- normally the computational bottleneck requiring nested simulation --- reduces to an inner product between the spectral density and the portfolio value function. On a 10-swap Vasicek portfolio with 40 quarterly monitoring dates, the spectral method produces CVA within 1.3\% of Monte Carlo (100,000 paths) while running 16\(\times\) faster (0.1s vs 1.2s), with zero sampling noise and instant stress testing. For credit spread scenarios, the spectral method reuses the exposure profile and only reweights the default probabilities, achieving 22\(\times\) speedup over MC which requires full resimulation. We project that for a realistic bank desk (5,000 counterparties, 20 regulatory stress scenarios), the spectral approach reduces the XVA computation from hours to minutes.

Length
3,187 words
Status
Draft
Target
Journal of Computational Finance / Risk Magazine

Novelty

Applying Fokker-Planck spectral generator discretization (cosine basis matrix exponential) specifically to the XVA computation stack, exploiting the bilinear separation of exposure profile and default probabilities to avoid resimulation under credit-only stress scenarios.

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